Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 50% to 41% among likely New York voters, according to a Siena Research Institute poll released Wednesday. The survey was conducted Sept. 11-17 among 1,144 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

The nine-point margin is little changed from Siena's August poll, when Hochul led Blakeman 49% to 39%. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that Hochul held a 17-point advantage over Republican Lee Zeldin at the same point in the 2022 campaign, before winning that election by six points.

Blakeman, who is seeking the Republican nomination for governor after serving as Nassau County executive, has a 35% favorable rating and a 34% unfavorable rating in the new survey. Nearly one-third of likely voters said they either had not heard enough about him or had no opinion. Hochul's favorability stands at 48% favorable and 46% unfavorable, while her job approval is 48% to 47%.

The geographic breakdown shows Hochul with a 61%-27% advantage in New York City and a narrower 48%-46% lead in the downstate suburbs. Blakeman leads 47%-44% upstate. Among independents, Blakeman holds a 44%-39% edge, while Hochul leads among Democrats 81%-11% and Blakeman leads Republicans 88%-8%.

Voters also give Hochul an advantage on the three issues tested by Siena. She leads Blakeman 49%-40% on making prices more affordable, 49%-43% on keeping New Yorkers safe and 47%-43% on addressing undocumented immigrants living in the state. At the same time, only 38% of voters say New York is headed in the right direction, compared with 49% who say it is on the wrong track.

The poll also found that 66% of likely voters believe Hochul will win the election, while 25% believe Blakeman will win. Siena cautioned that these perceptions are separate from voters' stated candidate preferences. The Nov. 3 election is six weeks away.