Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has revealed that his government spent time preparing for the possibility that President Donald Trump could order a U.S.-led military operation against Canada, describing the highly remote scenario as an “extreme tail risk.”

Carney discussed the preparations in a lengthy interview with the New York Times published Wednesday. When asked whether he had taken seriously the possibility of Trump ordering military action against Canada, Carney said he had examined the risk but declined to provide details about what that preparation involved.

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney said. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare.”

The admission comes as Carney's government has increasingly sought to reduce Canada's reliance on the United States amid tensions with the Trump administration. Canada has been exploring alternatives for critical technologies and military equipment, including reducing its dependence on the American Starlink satellite network and considering alternatives to purchasing U.S.-made F-35 fighter jets.

Trump has repeatedly joked and spoken about Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, but he ruled out using military force to annex the country in January 2025. He has instead discussed using economic pressure to encourage Canada to join the United States.

Despite that history, Carney said his government considered what would happen in the event of a U.S.-led military action, framing the exercise as routine contingency planning for an extremely unlikely scenario.

The revelation adds another unusual dimension to the increasingly strained relationship between the two longtime allies, whose economies and security arrangements remain deeply intertwined. Carney has simultaneously pursued closer relationships with other international partners as his government attempts to reduce Canada's dependence on the United States.