Exclusive: Poll Reveals Voter Insight Ahead Florida Primary

The Fight for Governor

According to Florida-based pollster “Victory Insights”, the race for governor after current leader Ron DeSantis' impending exit will be a contentious one, as front-runner Byron Donalds is expected to take the Republican nomination over competitors Jay Collins, James Fishback, and Paul Renner.

Polling in six districts found Donalds to be the favorite, earning 41% support and leading second-place candidate Collins, who received 15% support.

While 24% of voters remained undecided in the poll, Donalds seems to have a clear path to the nomination.

The state has favored Republican candidates for governor; the last time a Democrat held office was in 1994. However, leading candidate David Jolly, a former Republican member of Congress, will try to disrupt that trend.

Notable endorsements of Donalds include President Donald Trump and Florida Sen. Rick Scott, while Collins has received support from DeSantis.

Florida’s 2nd Congressional District

(Pictured above: Austin Rodgers and his family)

Fighting for Florida’s 2nd Congressional District are leading candidates Austin Rodgers and Keith Gross.

According to the poll, while Gross has spent millions more than Rodgers, he still trails behind him. Rodgers has earned endorsements from officials like Jim Jordan, Steve Scalise, and Tom Emmer. Regardless, a majority of District 2 voters remain undecided, ultimately meaning this race can be a toss-up.

Florida’s 7th Congressional District

Incumbent Cory Mills is facing stiff competition in the race for Florida’s 7th Congressional District. With 41.5% of voters undecided, Mills’ 28% support should be a wake-up call for the representative to change up his approach. According to media outlet Mother Jones, Mills has seen his fair share of controversies, including a restraining order against him for an alleged domestic assault, and veteran testimonies saying he “severely exaggerated his military credentials on numerous occasions.” While leading the polls, Mills’ direct opponent, Ryan Elijah, has been continually gaining momentum, closing the gap between the two candidates. If Elijah can maintain his position as a chief alternative to Mills, he will have the best opportunity to close the distance, and potentially unseat the incumbent.

Florida’s 9th Congressional District

A tight race between candidates Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, and Ben Butler for Florida’s 9th Congressional District, all of whom are polling roughly 14%. According to poll data, what separates the candidates for a potential frontrunner varies: Martinez narrowly leads the poll, Chalifoux won the FL-9 nomination in 2024, and Butler is the favorite on prediction markets.

However, the elephant in the room is the undecided voters, totaling nearly 41% of the polled audience, making this race one of the more ambiguous in terms of who will win.

Florida’s 14th Congressional District

(Pictured above: Kevin Steele)

Republicans are seeking to unseat Democratic incumbent Kathy Castor, who has held her seat for 20 years; however, the leading Republican candidate has come under fire over a residency scandal that could undermine his chances. Pollsters favor Kevin Steele, a Pasco County lawmaker, by nearly ten points over Mike Beltran. Steele has remained consistent on his stances, gaining popularity with moderate and conservative wings of the party.

Local reporting covering Steele’s leave says the state representative resigned from his seat representing House District 55 in the Florida Legislature due to records showing Steele is registered to vote in Hillsborough County while representing Pasco County. Florida state law says House candidates or incumbents must live and be registered to vote in the districts in which they were running at the time of the election and maintain a residence in the district for the entire term to which they are elected.

Regardless, Steele will continue to fight for the nomination come Aug. 18.

Florida’s 19th Congressional District

As Donalds fights for the governor's seat, a replacement must be found for his 19th-district congressional seat. The leading candidates vying for the opportunity are Jim Schwartzel and Catalina Lauf, who both gained a little less than 20% support, with third-place poller Jim Oberwies, who has maintained 11.7% support. Lauf in particular seems to be a prime candidate for a “Cinderella story,” as the candidate has shot up in the rankings, from 5% to 19% support from a previous poll taken mid-June.

(Pictured above: Catalina Lauf)

The poll noted that Lauf’s rise in polling is reminiscent of Donalds’ before he won the congressional seat, as her late surge could net her the win. However, timing is everything, and she can crash as quickly as she has risen, and with nearly 25% of respondents remaining undecided, this race remains a toss-up.

Florida’s 22nd Congressional District

Similar to District 9, Florida’s 22nd Congressional District sees its candidates scrapping for undecided voters, who total 41.5%. The political mudslinging has been in full force in this district, as claims about the candidates' ideologies, the sources of their campaign funding, and their late registration in the Republican Party have been called into question. In turn, the top three candidates, Belinda Keiser, Casey Askar, and Michael Carbonara, are statistically tied at around 13%; however, all the candidates are being viewed negatively by voters.

This brutal brawl will eventually have a winner, but, as Victory Insights describes, whoever comes out on top will be more of a survivor than a victor.