Republicans are posting majority support in Florida’s top two statewide races, according to a new Stetson University poll that offers a markedly different picture from recent surveys showing much more favorable contests for Democrats.

The poll found Republican gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds with 51% support against Democrat David Jolly at 39%, while Republican Sen. Ashley Moody also received 51% compared with 40% for Democrat Angie Nixon. The results stand in sharp contrast to a recent St. Pete Polls survey that showed Donalds and Jolly virtually tied at 43.5% to 43.4%, while Moody and Nixon were also tied at 45% each.

The findings also complicate the recent movement by national election handicappers toward more competitive ratings in Florida. Inside Elections shifted the governor's race from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on Sept. 17, while Sabato's Crystal Ball made the same move on Sept. 22. Cook Political Report moved the contest from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in August. Those ratings reflected a series of close polls and the possibility that Jolly could make the race more competitive.

But the Stetson survey suggests that describing Florida as a toss-up may overstate what the broader electorate is showing. The poll found neither Donalds nor Moody losing more than 7% support to voters from the opposing party, while Republicans appear to be consolidating behind their nominees. Florida's Republican voter-registration advantage also remains a significant factor in the statewide contests.

The poll found an especially notable difference among Black voters. Donalds, who would become Florida's first Black Republican governor if elected, received support from 25% of Black respondents, while Moody received 20%. Jolly and Nixon each had substantially stronger support among Black voters, but the numbers nevertheless show Republicans attracting a larger share of the demographic than they traditionally have in Florida statewide races.

Candidate familiarity also appears to be affecting the Senate contest. Thirty-two percent of respondents said they had never heard of Nixon, while another 25% said they knew of her but would not consider supporting her. By comparison, 47% said they knew Moody and would consider voting for her. Moody also posted a 50% favorable rating against 32% unfavorable, giving her an 18-point net favorability advantage.

The poll's partisan consistency was also strong. Eighty-five percent of voters who supported Republican Ron DeSantis in 2022 said they backed Donalds, while 85% of 2022 Democratic nominee Charlie Crist's voters supported Jolly. In the Senate race, 86% of Donald Trump voters in 2024 backed Moody and 84% of Kamala Harris voters supported Nixon.

The survey also tested Amendment 3, a proposed property-tax change that would increase Florida's homestead exemption for non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. The measure received 51% support, with 25% opposed and 24% undecided. Support reached 61% among Republicans but fell into the low 40s among Democrats and voters outside the two major parties.

Stetson surveyed 830 Florida voters from Sept. 14 through Sept. 21 using an online non-probability panel administered through Qualtrics. The poll therefore differs methodologically from traditional probability-based surveys and should be considered alongside other available polling rather than in isolation.

Still, the results provide a clear counterpoint to the recent narrative surrounding Florida. While several national handicappers have moved the governor's race from solid or likely Republican territory toward Lean Republican, the Stetson numbers show both Republican nominees above 50% and leading by double digits, underscoring how sharply polling assessments of the state currently differ.