Millions of households that rely on heating oil could face significantly higher energy bills this winter, with federal officials projecting a 21% increase in spending and an assistance group warning costs could rise by roughly 50%.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the average residential price of heating oil to reach $5.26 per gallon this winter, up about 34% from the $3.94 average recorded last winter.

That increase is expected to push average household spending on heating oil from roughly $1,745 to $2,115, even though the agency forecasts a winter that is about 9% warmer and could reduce overall fuel consumption.

About 5 million U.S. households, or roughly 3% of the country, primarily use heating oil for warmth. The Northeast accounts for approximately 4.1 million of those households, making the region particularly exposed to higher fuel costs.

The National Energy Assistance Directors Association is projecting an even larger increase. The group estimates heating oil will cost about 50% more this winter and says the average household using the fuel could see its annual heating expense rise from approximately $1,749 to $2,627, an increase of about $878.

NEADA, which represents state officials overseeing the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, has attributed the higher costs in part to disruptions in global petroleum markets connected to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. The group is seeking $3 billion in emergency funding for heating assistance.

The Trump administration has proposed eliminating federal funding for LIHEAP in its fiscal 2027 budget, as it also proposed doing for 2026. Congress ultimately provided about $4 billion for the program in fiscal 2026.

The outlook is not uniformly negative for every heating source. The EIA expects household spending on natural gas to fall about 9% nationally and propane costs to decline about 3%, while electricity bills are projected to increase about 4%.

Heating oil prices could also decline later in the winter. Market contracts on Tuesday indicated prices of about $4.60 per gallon for November delivery compared with roughly $4.13 for March, suggesting prices could fall as the heating season progresses.

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey declared an energy emergency Monday and announced nearly $150 million in measures aimed at reducing energy costs, including expanded heating assistance for middle-class households that use heating oil.