International organizations have issued urgent warnings that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are driving up global food prices and threatening food security for millions. The effective closure of the critical waterway, which handles roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and significant fertilizer volumes, stems from escalation in the Middle East conflict that began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization stated in May that the closure could trigger a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months. It noted the strait's role in about 30 percent of global urea exports and other agricultural inputs, with projections showing fertilizer prices rising 15 to 20 percent in the first half of 2026 if disruptions persist.

The UN World Food Programme reported that around 70,000 tonnes of food aid remain stranded due to congestion and rerouting. WFP supply chain director Corinne Fleischer highlighted that rising freight, insurance, and fuel costs are increasing delivery expenses to vulnerable populations. The agency estimated an additional 45 million people could face acute hunger on top of the 318 million already in severe food insecurity if issues continue through June.

UNCTAD data showed shipping transits through the strait dropped more than 95 percent since late February, with daily passages falling from an average of 103 ships to single digits. One-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, or about 16 million tonnes annually, normally passes through the route, according to the organization. Nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea and ammonia face particular pressure from higher natural gas prices.

The International Chamber of Commerce warned that combined effects with other chokepoints could push cereal prices up to 81 percent above 2020 baselines in severe scenarios. Consumer food prices in East Asia, the Pacific, and sub-Saharan Africa could rise nearly 70 percent above baseline levels.

UN Women analysis projected that an additional 11.7 million women and girls could face food insecurity by the end of 2026 across 28 countries, on top of 208 million already affected. Disruptions have forced rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, spiking tanker rates over 90 percent and war-risk insurance premiums.

Iran, a major producer of pistachios, dates, and other agricultural goods, imposed a ban on food exports in early March. Import-dependent nations in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia face the sharpest impacts from higher costs and supply delays. Farmers in affected regions may reduce fertilizer use, leading to lower crop yields in the coming seasons.

The situation has compounded existing pressures on global agriculture, with shipping lines suspending bookings and insurers withdrawing coverage for Persian Gulf routes in some cases.