Recent government inflation data has prompted the AARP to forecast a 3.6 percent cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security benefits in 2027. The projection comes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers rose 3.5 percent in August compared with the prior year.

The COLA calculation relies on the average CPI-W for July, August, and September relative to the same quarter the previous year. With two of the three months now available, the AARP estimate marks an increase from its prior 3.5 percent forecast and would represent the largest annual adjustment since 2023.

A 3.6 percent rise would add roughly $75 per month to the average retired worker's benefit, which stood near $2,071 earlier this year. The adjustment takes effect with January 2027 payments and is scheduled for official announcement on October 14 following the September CPI release.

Retirees have faced elevated costs in groceries, energy, housing, and health care. The projected COLA offers some short-term relief to fixed-income households. At the same time, concerns over the program's long-term solvency continue to mount, with trustees projecting trust fund depletion in the coming decade absent legislative changes.

Other analysts offered slightly different outlooks. The Senior Citizens League projected 3.5 percent, while the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated 3.4 percent. Final figures hinge on September data and any further shifts in energy prices.

The 2026 COLA was 2.8 percent. Historical averages over the past decade stand near 3.1 percent.