Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews are effectively tied in South Carolina’s Senate race, according to a New York Times/Siena University poll published Wednesday, putting a traditionally Republican seat in contention just days before the midterm elections.

The survey found both candidates receiving 48% support when rounded to whole numbers, with Graham holding a lead of less than one percentage point. The results offer Democrats a potential opportunity to gain ground in their effort to take control of the Senate, although the poll does not establish which candidate will ultimately prevail.

Graham was appointed to the Senate after her brother, longtime Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, died in July. She entered the race for a full term with encouragement from President Donald Trump, whose strong performance in South Carolina during the 2024 presidential election underscored the state’s Republican lean.

South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1998, and Trump carried the state by nearly 18 percentage points in 2024. The close polling therefore highlights potential vulnerabilities for Republicans in a state that has long been considered safely Republican in federal elections.

Andrews, a pediatrician, holds a substantial advantage among independent voters, leading Graham 57% to 37%. The Democrat also attracted support from 7% of Republican voters, according to the survey.

Voters expressed concerns about Graham’s qualifications and experience. Overall, 51% of respondents said she lacked the experience necessary to serve effectively as a senator, including 18% of Republicans. By comparison, 54% said Andrews had the necessary experience, including 22% of Republican respondents.

Graham had never held elected office before her Senate appointment. During an August primary debate, she acknowledged her limited familiarity with certain policy areas, stating, “I'm not that informed on national security.”

Andrews also held advantages on some policy questions, with voters favoring her approach to the economy and giving her narrower leads on the cost of living and foreign conflicts. Graham, however, was better known among respondents, while approximately one-quarter said they had not heard of Andrews or could not offer an opinion about her.

The New York Times/Siena University surveys were conducted Oct. 19-26 among 707 voters in South Carolina, as well as 813 voters in Florida. The poll results also showed competitive dynamics emerging in Florida, even as the political environment clearly favors the GOP.

In Florida, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody led Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon by 50% to 44%. Moody was appointed in 2025 to replace Marco Rubio after he left the Senate to become secretary of state. She is now seeking election to a full term.

Moody led Nixon on every issue measured in the poll, including the cost of living and which candidate would best represent ordinary Floridians. Nixon, however, led among independent voters by 52% to 38% and held a significant advantage within that group on the economy.

Nixon joined the Democratic Socialists of America in 2026 but has said she is not a socialist. The poll found that 37% of Florida respondents considered her too far to the left, while 41% said her views were not too far in either direction.

The contests illustrate differing challenges for both parties as they seek control of the Senate. South Carolina’s near-even polling presents a notable test for Republicans in a state Trump carried decisively in 2024, while Florida remains slightly competitive for Democrats but likely still out of reach.

The poll results reflect voter preferences during the survey period and are a snapshot of the political landscape with Election Day less than a week away.