US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, even though Chinese President Xi Jinping directed the People's Liberation Army to be ready by 2027 to seize the island by force if necessary.

The assessment, reported by Reuters on October 1, draws from two current US officials, one former official, and another person familiar with the matter. Key factors include setbacks in PLA readiness stemming from Beijing's ongoing anti-corruption campaign within the military and China's desire to observe the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 presidential election.

Some Chinese officials reportedly hope the election could produce a government more open to Beijing's unification goals. If Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive term, particularly with President Lai Ching-te winning reelection, the risk of force could rise starting in 2028, one US official noted, describing that scenario as potentially making the year "pretty sporty."

This view aligns with the US intelligence community's March 2026 annual threat assessment, which stated that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and prefer to achieve control without the use of force if possible. The 2027 target has long been viewed in Washington as a benchmark for military capabilities rather than a confirmed invasion timetable.

China maintains its claim over Taiwan as an inalienable part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan's government, led by the DPP, emphasizes the island's separate identity and insists that its future must be decided by its people. US officials continue to monitor Beijing's military modernization efforts amid these developments.