Political commentator Bill O’Reilly is predicting that Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will defeat Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico in the state’s closely watched 2026 Senate race.

O’Reilly made the prediction Monday, arguing that Talarico’s political positions could prove difficult to sell to Texas voters. “If I had to go by my gut, I’m not a betting man, but if I were, I would bet that Paxton will win in Texas because Talarico is just too much for that state,” O’Reilly said.

O’Reilly also argued that Paxton has an advantage because of his alignment with President Donald Trump and his support for the administration’s priorities. Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff in May and will face Talarico in November.

The race has remained competitive in public polling. A June University of Texas at Austin poll showed Paxton leading Talarico 43% to 42%, while a July Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico ahead 45% to 40%. The Texas Tribune’s polling tracker has described Talarico as holding a slight advantage across recent surveys.

Paxton has received significant backing from Trump-aligned political groups during the campaign. MAGA Inc. committed at least $10 million to support Paxton in September, while other outside groups have also spent heavily in the race.

The contest between Paxton and Talarico is one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 midterms, with both candidates and outside groups committing substantial resources to the campaign.

O’Reilly’s prediction reflects his personal assessment of the race, not an established election outcome.