BP plc announced first-quarter 2026 results showing an underlying replacement cost profit of $3.2 billion, compared with $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. The figure exceeded analyst expectations of around $2.67 billion.

The strong performance stemmed from exceptional oil trading contributions and higher refining margins, fueled by market volatility linked to the ongoing war with Iran. Revenue reached $52.26 billion, beating forecasts of $48.43 billion.

The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, between the United States, Israel, and Iran, has disrupted energy supplies, particularly after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 4. Brent crude prices surged more than 55% from around $72 per barrel on February 27 to nearly $120 at one point, though they have since moderated below $100 amid peace talk speculation.

BP's oil trading desk capitalized on the price swings, while refining operations benefited from wider cracks. The company's realized oil price averaged higher in the quarter, with the BP refining indicator margin at $16.9 per barrel, up from $15.2 in the prior period.

For context, BP's full-year 2025 underlying replacement cost profit was $7.5 billion, down from $8.9 billion in 2024 amid softer prices that year. The first-quarter surge positions BP strongly early in 2026.

BP maintained its full-year capital expenditure guidance of $13.0 billion to $13.5 billion and expects divestment proceeds of $9 billion to $11 billion. It also reaffirmed its quarterly dividend and announced a Q2 dividend.

Shares in BP rose following the release, reflecting investor approval of the results amid heightened geopolitical risks. The company noted continued focus on cost discipline and transition investments despite the favorable market.

Environmental campaigners criticized the profit jump, calling it a 'horrifying' windfall from the war, though BP emphasized returns to shareholders and energy security.

As peace talks involving President Trump stall, oil markets remain tense, with Brent up over 2% recently. The war has broader economic ripples, including a fuel crisis and supply chain strains.