The Cook Political Report, an independent election forecaster, updated its 2026 Senate race ratings on Tuesday to shift the open New Hampshire seat from 'Lean Democrat' to 'Toss Up'.

The change comes amid growing momentum behind former senator John E. Sununu in his midterm matchup against Democratic nominee and current congressman Chris Pappas.

The race is for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu, a member of New Hampshire's most prominent and popular political family, defeated former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown in the Republican primary. Pappas secured the Democratic nomination after defeating challenger Karishma Manzur.

Analyst Jessica Taylor noted that both public and private polls show a closer contest than expected. A recent co/efficient survey of likely voters found the race tied at 46 percent for each candidate, with 9 percent undecided. Other polls of the race have had similarly tight results, but one poll notably finds that Sununu has a slight edge over Pappas.

National Republican investment in the race has raised concerns among New Hampshire Democrats in the light blue state. President Donald Trump endorsed Sununu and supported him throughout his primary, as did Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Additionally, the Senate Leadership Fund, a major Republican political action committee, has pledged to spend $17 million in the NH race.

Rep. Pappas has previously voiced concerns that his campaign was trailing in the race. In early September, his campaign sent out a fundraising email to supporters that told them directly that the race was in a dire position for Democrats. "We’re losing," he wrote.

In a post on X responding to the development, Pappas told supporters that "MAGA super PACs are pouring millions of dollars a week" into the race in support of Sununu, who he referred to as "Donald Trump's hand-picked candidate".

New Hampshire voters have a history of splitting their tickets, often supporting Republicans for state office while also backing Democrats in federal races. The central dynamic remains whether Sununu can overcome the state's political environment that favors Democrats federally. A victory in New Hampshire from Sununu would be a major boon for the GOP as it seeks to defend its congressional majority in the coming midterms.

This marks one of the sparse positive shifts favoring Republicans amid broader national movements favoring Democrats in other competitive contests. The race has less than 45 days remaining before the general election on November 3.