NBC News, CBS News, and Decision Desk HQ have projected that Democrat Josh Turek defeated Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa’s open U.S. Senate race on Tuesday, flipping the Republican-held seat in a state President Donald Trump carried by 13 points in 2024 and delivering a significant gain for Democrats as they seek to win control of the Senate.

Turek, a state representative and former Paralympian, led Hinson by roughly five points in early returns, around 51% to 46%, with the large majority of votes counted. Libertarian Thomas Laehn received a smaller share. The result marks the first Democratic Senate win in Iowa since Tom Harkin’s reelection in 2008, ending nearly two decades without a Democrat representing the state in the chamber.

The seat was open after Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced she would not seek reelection. Turek, 47, was born with spina bifida and competed for the U.S. men’s wheelchair basketball team at four Paralympic Games. He was elected to the Iowa House in 2022, becoming the first permanently disabled member of the Legislature, and won a contested Democratic primary earlier this year. Hinson, 43, a former television journalist, has represented Iowa in the U.S. House since 2021 and positioned herself as a close ally of the Trump administration.

The race tightened in the final months as voter concerns over the cost of living intensified in Iowa. Tariffs and the ongoing conflict involving Iran drove up fuel and diesel prices, which hit the state’s agricultural economy particularly hard. Turek campaigned as a moderate focused on affordability, healthcare access, and working across party lines. Hinson emphasized her congressional record and alignment with national Republican priorities. The contest drew heavy advertising spending from both parties and outside groups, becoming one of the most expensive Senate races of the cycle.

The victory is a notable setback for Republicans in a state that has trended solidly red in recent statewide elections. It reduces the Republican Senate majority, which stood at 53-47 entering the election, and strengthens Democrats’ path toward a net gain of the four seats needed for control of the chamber. Other competitive races remained uncalled.