Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned Thursday that Russia is preparing to launch drone and missile strikes into NATO territory on its eastern flank, including Poland, and portray them as accidents to undermine the alliance's collective defense commitments.

Speaking in parliament, Tusk said intelligence assessments from NATO, Ukraine, Poland, and U.S. sources indicate this hybrid tactic forms part of Moscow's broader strategy to weaken support for Ukraine and test whether allies would invoke Article 5 in response to an attack on one member. He described the coming fall and winter months as a "tragically critical" period, with Russia expected to intensify strikes on Ukrainian cities, logistics, and energy infrastructure while probing NATO resolve.

"There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank and cause damage," Tusk stated. "The official narrative will be that it was an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any kind of NATO response."

Tusk noted that such incidents could repeat patterns seen in prior border violations, including Russian drones entering Polish airspace last year. Recent events have heightened concerns, including a Russian missile landing in eastern Poland in July and multiple drone sightings near the Polish-Ukrainian border. NATO jets shot down a Russian-origin drone over Lithuania earlier this week.

The warning preceded Tusk's planned visit to Ukraine on Friday. Poland has faced a series of suspicious incidents along its border with Ukraine in recent days, including strikes on rail lines and other infrastructure used for aid deliveries to Kyiv.

Tusk emphasized that Russia seeks to demonstrate Article 5 is "more theoretical than practical" and to exploit any perceived divisions among NATO members. He stressed the need for preparedness without spreading panic, noting Poland's position as a key frontline state supporting Ukraine.