Republicans are showing signs of strong Election Day participation in Florida, giving Republican gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds a boost in the closely watched contest against Democrat David Jolly. The increased GOP turnout has coincided with a rise in Donalds’ position on prediction markets, where traders are tracking the race as polls remain open across the state.

A Kalshi market snapshot circulated Tuesday showed Donalds with a 73% implied chance of winning the governorship, up eight percentage points, while Jolly fell to 27%, down eight points. Those figures reflect market expectations rather than official vote totals, and the odds can change as new turnout information and election results become available. A later market snapshot showed a different breakdown, underscoring how quickly the numbers can move.

Republicans have traditionally benefited from strong Election Day turnout in Florida, particularly among voters who prefer casting their ballots in person rather than voting early or by mail. In 2022, when Gov. Ron DeSantis won reelection by nearly 19 percentage points, Republicans held an Election Day turnout advantage of approximately 600,000 voters, according to Democratic strategist Steve Schale. Republicans also turned out at roughly twice the rate of Democrats on Election Day during Florida's August 2026 primary.

The GOP entered Tuesday with a substantial voter-registration advantage of more than 1.5 million. More than 5.4 million Floridians had already voted before Election Day, with registered Republicans accounting for 40.2% of those ballots, compared with 37.8% for Democrats. Independent and third-party voters made up the remaining 22%.

The early-voting figures also require some context. Republican early and mail voting totals had just edged past their final 2022 pre-Election Day level, but remained well below the much larger 2024 presidential-election total. The more immediate question for both campaigns is whether Republicans can turn their traditional Election Day advantage into a decisive margin.

Donalds, a Republican congressman endorsed by President Donald Trump, is seeking to succeed term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis. Jolly, a former Republican congressman who became a Democrat, is attempting to build a coalition of Democratic and independent voters to win statewide.

With voting underway, the turnout patterns and subsequent vote count will determine whether the Republican advantage holds. The Kalshi movement reflects growing confidence among market participants in Donalds, but the outcome will not be settled until the votes are counted and the race is called.