For most of the summer, the Texas U.S. Senate race was defined by what could go wrong for Ken Paxton. He was badly outraised, largely absent from the television airwaves, burdened by years of legal and personal controversies, fresh on the heels of a nasty primary election, and facing a Democratic opponent who had introduced himself to millions of Texans before Republicans had seriously begun fighting back.

But what if, from here on out, nearly everything starts going right for Paxton?

That possibility has become easier to imagine in September. Republican outside groups that spent much of the summer on the sidelines are now pouring tens of millions of dollars into Texas. President Donald Trump’s political operation is engaged. Elon Musk’s America PAC is spending heavily. Even the Senate Republicans have started to jump on board. And James Talarico, after months in which he was largely able to define himself on his own terms, is entering the final stretch with Republicans armed with both the money and the opposition research to change that.

The race remains extremely close. The latest Emerson College poll, conducted September 12–14, found Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, well within the survey’s three-point margin of error. Other recent public polls have generally shown Talarico with small leads, an unusual position for a Democrat in a state that has not elected a Democratic U.S. senator since 1988.

That makes the closing weeks less a question of whether Paxton has vulnerabilities — he plainly does — than whether Republicans can make Talarico’s vulnerabilities equally salient to voters.

There is suddenly plenty of material to work with.

In August, ProPublica and The Texas Tribune reported that Talarico voted in as many as five elections using his parents’ address after purchasing a nearby home of his own, a practice the news organizations said may have violated Texas election law. The revelation was particularly awkward because Talarico had recently accused Paxton of voter fraud over a similar residency issue.

Talarico’s anti-corruption and anti-billionaire message has also faced scrutiny over the money supporting his candidacy. He has campaigned against the political influence of billionaires and called for banning super PACs, even as the principal super PAC supporting him has received enormous contributions from wealthy donors. LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman alone gave the pro-Talarico group Lone Star Rising $10 million in the second quarter, after earlier contributions totaling another $1.5 million. The Texas Tribune has also documented support for the broader pro-Talarico effort from other wealthy donors and dark-money organizations. A brand-new corruption scandal alleging Talarico used his position to benefit a company he consulted for is further damaging Talarico's credibility on corruption.

Republicans have also been handed fresh ammunition in the culture war. At a recent campaign event, Talarico was asked to name his favorite Texas drag queen and immediately answered Alyssa Edwards. Edwards, whose real name is Justin Johnson, has publicly described himself as a drag performer who works with children and has appeared with young students. Talarico had already faced Republican attacks over previous comments on gender and religion, including his 2021 statement that “God is nonbinary” and an assertion during a Texas House debate that there are more than two biological sexes.

None of those controversies necessarily changes the race on its own. Talarico is a Democrat. He holds Democrat beliefs. What is different now is that Republicans finally have the resources to put them in front of voters at scale.

Texas PAC, a group connected to the Senate Leadership Fund, initially reserved roughly $51 million in television advertising across the state and has since expanded its investment. Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. separately committed $10 million, split between advertising supporting Paxton and opposing Talarico. Musk’s America PAC has spent millions more on voter contact, digital material and other efforts. By mid-September, the financial environment looked dramatically different from the summer, when Talarico had enjoyed the airwaves almost uncontested.

Paxton himself has also begun advertising more seriously, including an economic message focused on affordability alongside attacks on Talarico’s voting record. That gives Republicans two complementary lanes in the final stretch: outside groups can focus heavily on Talarico, while Paxton can spend more of his own lower-cost candidate advertising introducing an affirmative economic case.

There is also a historical reason not to assume that Democratic enthusiasm alone is enough to break Texas’ long Republican streak.

Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign against Ted Cruz became a national phenomenon, raising extraordinary amounts of money and attracting enormous media attention during a midterm environment that was broadly favorable to Democrats. O’Rourke still lost, 50.9% to 48.3% — a margin of about 2.6 percentage points.

Talarico is attempting something similar under different circumstances. He defeated Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary and built a formidable fundraising operation, while Paxton emerged from a bruising Republican runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn after receiving Trump’s endorsement. Paxton also enters the general election with baggage that Cruz did not carry in 2018: he was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 before being acquitted by the Senate, and his past legal troubles have remained central to Democrats' attacks.

That is the obvious case against Paxton.

The case for his best possible closing stretch is now taking shape as well: the Republican money gap disappears, Trump and national Republicans remain fully engaged, Paxton keeps the race focused on the economy, immigration and cultural issues, and Talarico spends the final weeks defending positions and controversies that received far less attention while he dominated the summer airwaves.

If those pieces come together, the Texas U.S. Senate race on Election Day could look very different from the one Democrats spent the summer preparing to run.